Sustainability Promises Need Growth - A World of Drones & Flying Cars
Making A Better World Requires Us To Grow
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“There are more things in heaven and earth than are dreamt of in your philosophy” - Hamlet
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Emissions and Flight
Dealing with the carbon emissions from flying presents an unprecedented challenge: nullifying the emissions of roughly 25,000 commercial aircraft, which annually transport around 4 billion people and use 100 billion gallons of jet fuel.
According to the consultants, around $5 trillion in investment might be necessary to achieve aviation's ambitious aim of carbon neutrality by 2050. This colossal sum is primarily destined for the production of sustainable fuel and renewable energy, according to McKinsey & Co. You would be excused for thinking this would make flights cheaper and more widely available as sustainable fuel and renewable energy should be cheaper, but it appears this is not the plan. The expenses of steering air travel away from fossil fuels will land squarely on passengers' shoulders.
Travellers have become accustomed to enhanced connectivity, intensified competition, and affordable fares. Why do we need to adjust our ambitions downwards, when we can go the other way and increase them?
The aviation industry's transition to greener fuels could undo the democratisation of air travel, resulting in steeper fares, fewer routes, and a reduced number of airlines if the governments and poorly thought-out policy advocates want us to turn the lights off and get back to our candles and spinning wheels. The less wealthy countries will pay the price more heavily. International air travel is just one contributor to global warming, its share of CO2 emissions is roughly 2% today.
For passengers, domestic US fares are now over 10% higher than pre-pandemic levels. The integration of decarbonisation expenses into ticket prices will become an enduring norm, reflecting vast, long-term investments by industry giants Boeing and Airbus, alongside fuel refiners, airports, and airlines. Just to be clear, the long-term investment is leading to increased fares, not decreased, who is that a successful investment for?
According to the International Civil Aviation Organization Environmental Report, sustainability measures could tack on as much as $73 to the price of a one-way seat on a long-haul flight like Singapore to Dubai or New York to Paris. New regulations in the European Union are poised to escalate ticket prices. The RefuelEU mandate will require airlines to infuse their aircraft with a 2% blend of sustainable aviation fuel by 2025, increasing to 6% by 2030 and reaching 70% by 2050.
This year, the Air France-KLM group more than doubled a compulsory surcharge instituted in 2022 to underwrite greener fuel. The cost of flights from Paris and Amsterdam escalated to between €2 ($2.20) and €24 per ticket. By 2035, the European mandates could amplify expenses by €230 for a round-trip flight from Barcelona to Tokyo via Lufthansa's Frankfurt hub.
The commonly known SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) is at least twice as costly as traditional jet fuel, inevitably raising airline expenses. Furthermore, European carriers will forfeit free carbon allowances, subjecting their emissions to full taxation.
"Ticket prices are on an upward structural trajectory," analysts at ING Bank noted. "Sustainability is increasingly influencing airline markets."
Instead of placing the expense of carbon cleanup directly onto airlines, alternate propositions are emerging, including passenger taxes. To generate adequate funding through this avenue would necessitate a $25-per-person surcharge on each flight! This was proposed by the International Council on Clean Transportation.
Other measures, if widely adopted, will hinder growth and drive fares upward. France has banned a selection of domestic flights and plans to tax airfare to fund rail substitutes. Amsterdam's Schiphol Airport secured court permission to curtail capacity, prompting Air France-KLM to review its operations there.
Subsidies could bootstrap the fledgling SAF market, akin to their role in renewable energy, but these incentives would need to be extended beyond 2027 to incentivise investments in new facilities.
The International Air Transport Association (IATA), representing around 300 airlines, calculates that achieving net zero by 2050 necessitates average annual investments of nearly $180 billion. Even if carriers (read consumers) shoulder just 65% to 75% of the total cost, the financial burden could prove insurmountable.
"I don't believe this is financially sustainable, considering the sector's size and projected expansion," - Volodymyr Bilotkach, aviation management associate professor at Purdue University.
The industry's response post-2050 hinges on the degree to which governments pursue decarbonisation agendas. The EU, for example, might ban airlines that fail to meet sustainable fuel requirements, slowing growth entirely.
Passenger numbers are forecasted to double to over 8 billion in the next two decades. It is not only passengers who need to move, freight transported by air then land has a significant impact. Simply put we want to fly, and we should be able to without causing the world to end.
Drones have a remarkably low transportation-related electricity use. On a per-package delivered basis, drones offer a 50% reduction in emissions compared to diesel trucks. Finding ways to move freight by drone and people by electric flying cars will have a profound positive impact on our lives.
Growth Requirement
Technological advancements like electric aircraft, hydrogen-powered planes, and battery technology breakthroughs are needed. Flying cars and drones can lift us out of this doom loop. Instead of burning money on carbon credits and optimising the current aircraft, put some of the $5 trillion into advancing technology at a quicker pace and into smaller teams capable of groundbreaking innovation.
In opening up the low-altitude skies we can decrease the carbon emissions from cars and trucks which is a net positive, and using our individual air rights through SkyTrades is the key. Banning flights, fining companies and regulating businesses so much that only the truly captured ones can turn a profit will lead to reduced competition and ultimately hit consumers with no material impact on emissions. These are modern-day indulgences.
Flying Car Epiphany
Applied eVTOL Concepts has unveiled the Epiphany Transporter that fuses personal mobility and VTOL technology. With morphing dual-mode thrusters, it hovers like a helicopter and cruises like an aeroplane. Conceived by Michael Moshier and Rob Bulaga, Epiphany aims to revolutionise urban air mobility. Tested over the years, its DARPA-backed thrusters are touted to be robust and reliable.
The vehicle offers a 300-mile range, 160 mph top speed, and operates quietly in urban environments. Its size matches a Tesla Model S and fits into a standard garage. Applied eVTOL Concepts aims to accelerate testing and certification for a global market launch in the next year.
They Come Bearing Gifts
Wing, the Google parent, Alphabet-owned drone delivery firm, is set to trial a 'rapid medical delivery network' in South Dublin, Ireland later this year. They intend to work with hospitals and pharmacies for 'rapid medical delivery' in the months ahead.
The trial aspires to not only enhance the patient experience but also alleviate traffic congestion and emissions. No one in the South Dublin community has received any request to use their air rights. What could be happening here? Is Google/Alphabet-led Wing going to use the properties’ air rights without permission?
The Irish Aviation Authority (IAA) don’t own low-altitude air rights to grant their use to Wing so permission can’t be coming from them. Wing expressed eagerness to engage with the local community (but not to get their permission to use their air rights) as they propel their operations forward and initiate flights. The promise of medical drone delivery is wonderful but doing so by stamping on strongly held, legal property rights is not.
We own our air rights, not Google and Alphabet, it’s important they are not taken away one delivery at a time. SkyTrades.io