Risk appetite for flying cars - finding the sweet spot
Is our near zero risk expectation throwing away the rewards we will get from progress?
Commercial aircraft flight over the last 20 years has become safer by a factor of c.5X compared to cars and bicycles as a mode of transport. What's going on?
Should we be encouraging people onto aircraft and out of land cars considering it’s so safe. Finding ways to make urban air travel more prevalent and to reduce automobile accidents would be a great way to progress. Are the incentives for Electric Vehicles (EVs) misaligned and they need to extend further for Air EVs and urban air mobility in general?
In the drive for safety we are holding back growth in urban air mobility as a trade off. But we don't need to trade it off; it's already safer than your car. Even safer than the cars with batteries.
Spreading their wings - drones
Wing a subsidiary of Alphabet have spent over a decade working on drone technology to deliver packages more efficiently and safely. The latest development is very exciting. Rather than designing and testing individual aircraft, Wing say they have created a platform that harnesses a fleet of drones for efficient delivery. Wing are talking about a decentralized, automated system which can support high-volume drone delivery across a major metro area or a more sparsely populated region. They are looking to implement a point to point model. From a delivery point of view there are two main models, Point to Point or a Hub and Spoke networks.
When helping build marketplaces it was very clear to me which was a better and scalable option for all sides of the marketplace. In the diagram above imagine your property, farm or business being under the transit lines and your air space being crossed with increased frequency. Without any direct incentive to approve the use of your air space, neither of these models can work.
The hardware consists of delivery drones, "Pads" for takeoff, landing, and recharging, and "AutoLoaders" for preloading packages. Drones within the network can operate in any pattern that makes the most sense for the entire system. With multiple charging spots and the flexibility to meet peaks in consumer demand.
This is a step in the right direction. It is notable in the released videos and maps no mention is made of the landowners air rights, they are very bullish on having flexibility within the network. In order for Wing to fulfil their ambitions and get the flexibility they require the community to be on side. The community are the ultimate customers and owner the air rights. We are bringing the owners air rights into the eco-system with SkyTrades.io, to enable Wing and similar businesses push to scale their drone delivery operations.
Balancing progress with risk: the challenge of introducing flying cars into our transportation ecosystem
As flying cars become a reality, a crucial question arises: what level of risk are we willing to accept for this mode of transportation? Should we tolerate the same fatality rates as we do for cars or aviation, or aim for somewhere in between, perhaps closer to that of motorcycles or pedestrians?
It is a question with no clear answer, and one that demands our serious attention as we weigh the benefits of technological innovation against the potential risks to human life. In truth, we already accept certain levels of risk in our daily lives for a variety of reasons. In order to advance as a civilization, we must accept some level of risk for our growth.
The aviation industry has done an exceptional job in enhancing safety, but has its success led us to a false sense of security and expectation? After all, despite being over 100 years old, aviation growth has been linear at best. The halcyon days were from the early 1920’s to the 1940s with the invention of the jet engine and then the innovation curve flattened
If we were to ask safety regulators what an acceptable level of risk for a flying car should be, they would undoubtedly say zero fatalities. However, the general public's opinion is different. We are willing to accept a certain level of risk for our advancement, albeit abstract.
When the goal is zero fatalities, not having a flying car seems to be the simplest way to achieve it. Therefore, reasonable regulatory incentives are crucial to encourage innovation while ensuring safety. The public's expectations and the need for growth are being realigned as we explore new modes of transportation.
One promising approach to boosting the urban air mobility market is to involve air rights owners in the ecosystem. By providing them with incentives and increasing property values, we can encourage exponential growth in both hardware and software. Additionally, this can provide greater security for commercial UAV operators and visibility for regulators.
As we move forward, we must find the sweet spot between safety and progress. Only then can we fully reap the benefits of flying cars and other emerging technologies.
Drone delivery on the move
Zipline is testing drones that provide quiet, fast and precise autonomous delivery directly to homes in cities and suburbs. It is expected to deliver up to 7X as fast as traditional automobile delivery, completing 10-mile deliveries in about 10 minutes.Â
Their drones fly from 0 - 300 feet above the ground. When the drone arrives at the destination, it hovers while it’s fully autonomous delivery droid manoeuvres down a tether, steers to the correct location and drops off the package.Â
Sweetgreen is partnering with Zipline to move a step closer to its pledge to be carbon-neutral by 2027. Michigan Medicine want to use the service to more than double the number of prescriptions it fills each year. Intermountain Health ambition is to use it to deliver prescriptions to patients’ homes in the Salt Lake City metro area. MultiCare Health System intends to use it to expedite diagnostics and deliver prescriptions and medical devices throughout MultiCare’s network of facilities, including hospitals, laboratories and doctors’ offices.
These businesses are realizing how important it is for their communities to benefit from this new technology. The communities below the flight paths are also looking forward to playing their part in the eco-system by deciding how they will utilise their air space. The companies involved have exceptional records when it comes to doing the right thing.
Each drone has a 10-mile service radius while carrying a 6-8 pound payload for out and back deliveries from a single dock. It can also fly up to 24 miles one way from dock to dock, charging at each dock before picking up its next delivery.
The company has received Part 135 certification. They have not received the permission of the air rights owners to fly over their properties. The current FAA certification does not roll back decades of law and property rights. No one would want that to happen in any event. To enable Zipline and other companies to expand drone use and get public adoption at scale we are building out the network of air rights.
Leveraging property to deliver
Manna has announced an undisclosed investment from Coca-Cola HBC and is expanding its drone delivery service to the US market. Coca-Cola HBC is the strategic bottling partner of the sugar water company and promoting this project through its venture arm.
The residents in Texas’ Dallas-Ft. Worth will be the next to receive goods if the Part 135 certification is received. Manna has partnered with a real estate development company Hillwood. The developer of AllianceTexas, a 27,000-acre mixed-use, master-planned community and home to the Mobility Innovation Zone.
The use case is clear and the requirements for the air space above property, obvious. Drone delivery companies like Manna need the air space that property owners have the rights over and we solve for this. For more information contact me at jonathan@skytrades.io
The high cost of excessive safety measures
Flying cars, drones, and air taxis are revolutionary but largely unwarranted safety concerns and regulatory barriers have slowed their adoption. The public has not been given the opportunity to accept the low, manageable risks associated with these new technologies.
The relationship between safety and economic growth is complex and context-dependent. While safety is an essential consideration and ensuring the safety of workers and the public is a key responsibility of businesses and governments, excessive safety measures can slow or even halt economic growth. Finding the balance between progress and safety is crucial to ensure that we reap the benefits of emerging technologies without impeding their potential for growth and development.
The solution: Our air rights platform
A great company is a conspiracy to change the world - Peter Thiel
By enabling property owners to utilise their airspace by leasing, renting or parking their air rights we create a more efficient and effective eco-system for urban aerial operations. We aim to bridge the gap between property owners, UAV companies, and regulators to create a sustainable and profitable marketplace for air rights.
The benefits of this approach are many. For property owners, air rights can become a new source of income, similar to leasing mineral rights, offshore oil or billboard space. For UAV companies, access to these air rights can expand their operational capacity, increase efficiency, and reduce costs. Regulators can benefit from a more transparent and accountable system for monitoring UAV activity and ensuring safety standards are met.
One key advantage of our market led approach is the alignment of incentives. Property owners have a vested interest in maintaining the safety and security of their airspace, as well as ensuring the efficient use of their property. UAV companies, on the other hand, have a vested interest in operating safely and efficiently to maintain their reputation and competitiveness. By aligning these incentives, we can create a system that benefits all parties involved.
The security of commercial UAV operators is also a significant concern. By bringing air rights onto our platform, we can provide a more secure and stable environment for these operators to conduct their business. With clear boundaries and permissions, operators can avoid accidental or intentional intrusion into restricted airspace, reducing the risk of accidents or security breaches.
The increased visibility for regulators and legislators is a critical component of our approach. By creating a transparent and accountable marketplace for air rights, regulators can better monitor UAV activity, ensuring compliance with safety standards and other regulations. This can help to alleviate concerns over the potential risks associated with UAVs, and facilitate the growth of the industry.
Bringing landowners' air rights into the marketplace through our company can provide a much-needed accelerant to the growth of the UAV industry. By aligning incentives, improving security, and increasing visibility for regulators, we can create a more efficient and effective ecosystem for aerial operations. With this new avenue for growth, the potential of UAVs can be fully realized, bringing benefits to property owners, UAV companies, regulators and society as a whole. Importantly it will answer the question, Where is my flying car?
