Global Race for the Skies - Flying Car Developments
America, China, France and The Humble Individual
Thanks for reading and I hope you enjoy this week’s article. Please get in touch with me at jonathan@sky.trade
Oui or Non?
In Paris, some local authorities are raising objections to the proposed launch of the Volocopter air taxi services for the 2024 Olympics.
Deputy Mayor Dan Lert criticized the project, branding it as "a totally useless and hyper-polluting gadget for a few ultra-privileged people in a hurry.” In the race for the flying car, who is going to win? Not only in terms of it actually flying in their country but more importantly for politicians, where it will be built and where will the IP be developed?
The main concerns are predictable. Noise, visual pollution, and safety risks to both passengers and residents. These are the same concerns that some have with drones. The eVTOL and UAV industries have been doing a lot to address these concerns.
We must remember that passenger planes, massive lumps of metal flying through our skies can come crashing down on our cities. We accept these, they are safe and noise and visual pollution are generally contained. I’m not certain if visual pollution is even a valid objection based on much of the architecture that gets approved by these concerned politicians.
The Socialist Party said the project was "absurd.” That sounds like a good enough reason to progress it! The complaint from these anti-growth people was that it would "gain a few minutes for a few wealthy people in a hurry, ignorant and contemptuous of the climate emergency, we would pollute the atmosphere, (and) we would destroy the sound environment." The initial use of cars, trains, planes, and computers were all for a few wealthy people or companies in a hurry to generate returns, now they are available for our everyday use.
The mayor of the 15th arrondissement doubled down and wants to close the Issy-les-Moulineaux heliport permanently. I’m a Jestsons fan, take this route Mr Mayor and the Stone Age beckons.
France's independent Environmental Authority (EA) deemed the impact study "incomplete" for the planned vertiport (eVTOL heliport) on the Seine. In other words, they don’t want to make a decision. The EA also emphasized the significant energy consumption the vehicles, which reportedly exceeds that of a train. I like trains too, but they don’t fly and they are slower than planes. The French government's transport department now has the final decision on the plan.
China Marches On
Lilium an all-electric vertical take-off and landing (eVTOL) vehicle, and CITIC Offshore Helicopter Co, China's exclusive helicopter port provider, announced today the signing of a Memorandum of Understanding ("MoU"). This agreement signifies the beginning of a collaboration between the two companies to establish an eVTOL operation network in China, starting with the Greater Bay Area.
The Chinese have not had a report yet on the visual pollution, that I can find, and despite being a ‘socialist’ economy don’t seem to share the French Socialist Party views on flying cars.
In the terms of the MoU, they will develop services in the Shenzen region, driven by market demand, with the ultimate goal of offering regular eVTOL services. Drone delivery is already part of everyday life in Shenzen, delivering thousands of packages a day to the communities in the city. The initial eVTOL launch will take place in the Greater Bay Area, with plans for expansion across the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao area, Hainan Island, and Tianjin.
This development follows Lilium's recent collaborations with key suppliers in the Chinese region, including agreements with Heli-Eastern and an MoU with the Bao'an District of the Shenzhen municipality. China is expected to command nearly 25% of the eVTOL market.
Innovation Is Key
Archer Aviation has experienced an impressive year and has a $600 million liquidity buffer. It is positioned for commercialization in 2025 according to reports. Archer secured a $142 million U.S. Air Force order and partnerships in India and the UAE, with international operations set for 2026.
The eVTOL is called The Midnight and can recharge in 6-7 minutes, they are claiming initial ride-share costs will start at $4-$5 per mile, excluding fees to the owners of the air rights it transits through.
Archer also signed an MoU with Air Chateau International to purchase 100 Midnight eVTOLs, valued at $500 million, enhancing air taxi operations in Abu Dhabi and Dubai by 2026. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approval for U.S. operations is touted for 2025. Archer also has a manufacturing facility under construction in Atlanta, Georgia, capable of producing 650 aircraft.
Whether flying cars start in Europe, The US or China, is somewhat an academic concern, what matters is where they’ll scale. What jurisdictions are open for business in innovative sectors or what jurisdictions look to shut them down is the main question.
Property Rights
Inevitably the more open jurisdictions will win, Archers facilities in Georgia are real jobs in a community. Taking to the sky in flying cars benefits those of us on the ground too and we should encourage the innovators and dreamers through easier or reduced regulations and investment.
One watch out is where the flying car companies are so closely connected to the government and regulators that one of them becomes the default company that ‘wins’, not by being better but by capturing the regulator. This is why it is so important that the underlying system that powers the industry is decentralized.
The property (air space) is already a decentralized ownership structure, and the power resides in its composition, and the property owners. Low-altitude airspace that eVTOLs and Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) need to transit through is being opened up by air rights holders, giving permission for a fee to the operating companies.
The communities where this happens fastest will drive incomes for individual property owners, eVTOL and UAV companies.
Thanks for reading, you can contact me at jonathan@sky.trade
